2007 NFL Preview

The Shield

"You get taller, shorter, fatter, skinnier, clothing comes and goes, but you have your one constant, the shield. That’s the thing that stays with you...It’s the symbol not only of authority, but of ethics."

- Thomas Nerney, retired New York detective

Wyatt Earp. Robert E. Lee. Elliot Ness. George Patton. Frank Serpico. Joe Arpaio.

These men represent countless others throughout history who wore a piece of nickel alloy, hand-sewn insignia, or both. Their shield or badge stood for honor and integrity and it deserved respect. When it was defiled or shamed, there were repercussions and consequences that flowed like an angry mountain river after a thunderstorm.

I have another name to add to this list and he offices on the sixteenth floor at 280 Park Avenue in New York City.

Roger Goodell arrived a year ago as NFL commissioner replacing the laid back ex-attorney Paul Tagliabue. He has witnessed the arrests of over 50 players and coaches since the start of the 2006 season. Instead of letting these issues dangle unresolved until the court system took care of them and fretting over due process like his predecessor, Goodell quickly established a can-do punishment policy as an arm of the NFL Player Conduct Policy.

This enactment represents the fiery and intense passion that Goodell feels for the NFL logo as he stated when he suspended Adam "Pac Man" Jones for the 2007 season and Chris Henry for 8 games. "We must protect the integrity of the NFL. The highest standards of conduct must be met by everyone in the NFL because it is a privilege to represent the NFL, not a right."

As we embrace the 2007 NFL season, it should not go unnoticed that this off season has been historical. Besides the fact that many teams took on new identities through free agency, trades, the draft, and upper management overhauls, we witnessed a commissioner that chews bullets for breakfast.

He doesn't care about notoriety or jersey sales. Just ask Michael Vick. When it's all said and done, if you are a member of this league and decide to build sand castles in criminal surroundings, then you will not have the right to wear the shield.

Below are my forecasts for each team in the order that I see them finishing as they prepare to wage war for the privilege to become champions in Glendale, AZ in Super Bowl XLII.

AFC EAST

• New England Patriots - A 38-34 loss in an AFC Championship Game for a team that has won three of the last six Super Bowls isn't acceptable. GM Scott Pioli spent the off season addressing their biggest needs by signing WR's Randy Moss, Wes Walker, and Donte' Stallworth along with TE Kyle Brady and monster LB Adelius Thomas. Bedsides Walker, these receivers are injury-prone and they must develop chemistry with QB maestro Tom Brady. The addition of Thomas is massive for a defense that is already pretty solid and will be without their leader, Rodney Harrison, for four games for violating the NFL drug policy. This team is going to make a lot of noise.


• Miami Dolphins - There has been a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the city of Miami like one of their daily thunderheads for some time now and the root of this darkness is on offense. After Nick Saban jettisoned to 'Bama, the 'Fins hierarchy brought in offensive guru Cam Cameron from San Diego to be head coach. Coach Cam worked with QB Trent Green in Washington and he has the tools to raise the team's scoring average which has been repulsive for many seasons. Miami's defense is going to continue to be very dominating so expect sunny skies this season despite what forecasters are saying.


• New York Jets - Coach Eric Mangini was very blessed last year as a rookie head coach to have such a Fisher Price schedule, but this year teams will be ready for the Jets. QB Chad Pennington, coming off double surgery on his throwing shoulder, started all sixteen games and was pretty efficient despite 16 interceptions. He will be surrounded with offensive weapons including ex-Bear Thomas Jones, but the biggest concern is one defense where this unit did not change in personnel to fit Mangini's 3-4 scheme so I don't see them improving their 24th ranking in run defense. This is not a good thing.


• Buffalo Bills - All the elements seem to be in place for the Bills to return to prominence in the next few years, but the road ahead is long. They have a very young team on both sides of the ball which was depleted of some serious talent in the off season. Typically, this results in issues in on-field leadership and developing team chemistry, but it's just going to take time and patience. QB J.P. Losman is a work in progress. He appears to have the skills and athleticism to be a very good field general and WR Lee Evans is a potent threat. This will be a key building year for Buffalo and the playoffs are a pipe dream.

AFC NORTH

• Baltimore Ravens - When you think of a prototypical NFL defense it's very hard to not think of the suffocating scheme in Baltimore. They were ranked #1 last year and second vs. the run while compiling 60 sacks and 27 of them came from lineman. Offensively, they upgraded at running back by trading for RB Willis McGahee who replaces Jamal Lewis. QB Steve McNair must stay healthy all year like he did last season, and that's asking a lot from a guy who goes through a tube of Ben-Gay per game. The Ravens don't get a lot of credit, but they have everything in place to make a deep run into the playoffs.


• Cincinnati Bengals - Nine arrests in nine months. At that rate, the whole Bengals team will be on probation in three and a half years. It's not yet known what kind of effects these law-breaking ventures will have on the team as they are probably impervious to them. Team chemistry and discipline on both sides of the ball will be vital to this season's success. QB Carson Palmer remains a top-tiered passer, and he leads an offense that has high-voltage potential but sometimes the breakers are thrown resulting in turnovers. The offensive line must also get healthy and work together as a unit. There are major questions on defense mostly dealing with their aggressiveness on the line and pass defense in addition to there simply not being any play makers on this squad. Don't be surprised if they falter and slip to third.


• Pittsburgh Steelers - The steel squared jaw and unhinged scowl of Bill Cowher is no longer patrolling the sidelines as the reins have been passed on to the defensive mind of Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff. This year it's all up to Ben Roethlisberger as this team will go as far as Big Ben takes them, and that may not be good news. His career has fallen hard figuratively and literally. If he can bounce back to being his 2005 self, then the Steelers will be a force. but it's going to take time to adjust to the philosophies and schemes of the new coaching staff. I wouldn't rule out a second place finish, but I think the difference will be at quarterback.

• Cleveland Browns - Where do you begin? When you look at pure talent on this team at each key position, it's pretty high. Quarterback is a real mystery and has been for years, but the drafting of Brady Quinn looks to be genius if his talents materialize and mature in this NFL environment. They have very dependable weapons at RB with Jamal Lewis, and the receiving corps is above average. The defense has promise but they just haven't been able to gel as a unit due to injuries, inconsistency, and shallow depth. If there isn't any sign, not even a smoke signal, that this team is building towards a playoff run in 2008, coach Romeo Crennel will be flipping burgers. It's ironic that the team identity is with the Dawg Pound.

AFC SOUTH

• Indianapolis Colts - Now, let's visit the other end of the spectrum. Peyton Manning is the smartest and most indispensable player in the league, and will be very hungry for another ring. The Colts lost several instrumental personnel in the off season one both sides of the ball and those losses will be felt, but to what degree is not yet known. The offense will be as potent if not more than last season, but the real question is on defense. Injuries and free agency have left this squad limping and the real onus will be at cornerback where experience is now low. Despite all that, there's still one thing you can do: Trust in Manning and be glad that you're in the AFC South.

• Jacksonville Jaguars - The roller coaster era of QB Byron Leftwich is over. He simply was not able to take them to the next level, fought injuries, and feuded with coaches so the mantle has been placed on the shoulders of David Garrard. The Jags offense has the ingredients to be potent, and the defense has always been stout and dominating. But, inconsistency and unpredictability have been this team's crux for awhile now with their inability to win close games and the ones against sub-.500 teams. If that trend doesn't change this year, J-town will need a schizophrenia clinic to endorse for their fans, and coach Del Rio will be gone.

• Tennessee Titans - 2006 began tumultuous for these Titans going 0-5 behind an inert Kerry Collins, a head-stomping incident, and the impact of the Pacman Chronicles. Just as the season seemed to be spiraling out of control, a bird...no, a plane...no, Vince Young came to the rescue! Tennessee won 8 of their last 11 including their final six in a row only to miss the playoffs by one win. Young's potential is high on the Richter Scale, but he is far from being a finished product. The onus is on him this year to carry this team due to many of his weapons from last year leaving and an unproven running game. The defense has a ton of promise and will miss Pacman's impact, but with this "video game" now unplugged, fans are hoping that the team can come together and satisfy their intense hunger for a championship.

• Houston Texans - It's out with the old and in with the new...and old again. Coach Gary Kubiak decided that the original Texan duo of David Carr and Domanick Davis had to go. QB Matt Schaub has started two games in the NFL and has now been crowned the second coming in Houston. He has a RB in Ahman Green who is 30 going on 45 and is just simply too worn down to be as effective as he once was. The Texans have several needs on defense including an effective pass rush, stopping the run, and a suffocating secondary. The pieces appear to be in place for Houston to put together an eventual contender, but I think they're still a few years away at best.

AFC WEST

• San Diego Chargers - In a very Dallas Mavericks-type fashion, the Chargers plowed through the regular season with much flair and ease only to get body-slammed to the ground in their first playoff appearance. The Bolts responded by firing their head coach and letting their OC and DC leave for other teams. Norv Turner takes over a squad overflowing with talent at every single position and on the bench. The offense, anchored by RB phenom LaDainian Tomlinson, is the one that Turner orchestrated when L.T. was a rookie, and he should also do wonders in the maturation of QB Philip Rivers. Defensively, this unit is top-notch and deadly. Turner isn't known for playoff success either so this signing was a huge gamble, but so was Barry Switzer's arrival in Dallas in 1995 which led to a Super Bowl win his first season.

• Denver Broncos - Coach Mike Shanahan is an impatient man. Any time he doesn't make the playoffs or meets his expectations of the season, there is change on the horizon. For most teams, that would breed inconsistency and hinder their growth, but with Shanahan his schemes and philosophies are king despite the steady stream of different faces. This is now QB Jay Cutler's team, and RB Travis Henry certainly has the skills to rack up 1500 yards. The other targets for Cutler are somewhat shaky, but have a ton of promise and potential. There are some questions at linebacker, but the line and secondary are solid and should do their part to keep the offense in the game and bring the playoffs back to Mile High.

• Oakland Raiders - Since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders are 15-49. If you know anything about owner Al Davis, it's not surprising that he is pretty bitter about the whole thing. He has vast experience in overhauling his team trying to find the right recipe for success to build on, but hasn't found one to keep around a very long time. Lane Kiffin is now head coach and has a head for offense. While the starting quarterback may not be announced until right before the season opener, it won't matter. Daunte Culpepper or Josh McCown should be decent field generals, and the rest of the offense have promising impact under Kiffin's system. The defense has come together over the years and should be among the best in the AFC. This will be an improved year from last year's 3-13 which is a start.

• Kansas City Chiefs - Not too long ago, KC's offense was among the league's best and its Achilles Heel was the defense. Oh, how times have changed. There are serious questions on offense going into the 2007 season at quarterback with Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard vying to take the reins after Trent Green's departure to Miami. RB Larry Johnson missed all of training camp and a lot of the pre-season due to a contract squabble, but should return to his lethal self very soon. The receiving corps, besides TE Tony Gonzalez, is almost non-existent and the offensive line is very shaky. The Chiefs defense is revamped and much faster and will have the burden to carry this team. I think it's going to be a long year.

NFC EAST

• Dallas Cowboys - If Bill Parcells did one thing while in Dallas, he laid a great foundation of talent to build on. The new general contractor, Wade Phillips (well...and owner Jerry Jones), brings with them a coaching staff that appears to be a perfect fit for the personnel on the field. QB Tony Romo must prove that he is, in fact, the future of this team and he hasn't shown any signs so far that he isn't. His arsenal is full and efficient, and I expect WR Terrell Owens to have a monster year. Phillips' impact on defense will be very noticeable as it becomes fast and furious which has been extinct for a long time. This combination of a dangerous offense and juggernaut defense just might be enough for Dallas to stampede deep into the playoffs.
  
  
• Philadelphia Eagles - This off season for Philly has been one of uncertainty and sadness. Coach Andy Reid had to take time off and deal with family issues after both of his sons got in serious hot water over drug charges. Donovan McNabb is coming off of a terrible knee injury and his return to greatness is not known although he has an excellent track record of bouncing back from injuries. RB Brian Westbrook will continue to be the focus of opposing defenses as he uses his versatility to chew up yards. McNabb's receivers are sufficient and will be dependable to move the ball down field. Defensively, Philly is poised to be very dominant, and I expect that this division race with Dallas will be very exciting.

• Washington Redskins - If certain key players play to their potential and stay healthy, then this Skins team could make some noise in the second half of the season. Coach Joe Gibbs took the blame for the collapse in 2006, but this year's hopes fall squarely on the shoulders of QB Jason Campbell. He is showing signs of poise in the pocket and that will increase if the offensive line and RB Clinton Portis stays healthy. There were several holes on defense last year and those were filled with excellent talent and heart. I think the only thing keeping Washington from being serious contenders is owner Daniel Snyder who seems to have a phobia to rebuilding and wants to win with old veterans.
  
  
• New York Giants - Mystery and distractions are flooding this team. The Giants just can't seem to avoid noxious energies that snake through the squad. Tiki Barber retired and then blasted QB Eli Manning's ability and leadership. Manning did the immature thing and returned fire. DE Michael Strahan became a holdout during training camp and just recently decided that he wanted to play. That should bode well with teammates. The team as a whole seems to thrive on shutting out chemistry. If you combine that with Manning's inconsistency (I think Barber was right) and huge questions at running back and on defense, there's no reason to think that this team will be in disarray by season's end.
  

NFC NORTH

• Chicago Bears - I don't think it's any secret that Chicago is poised to win its third straight division title, but is a return to the Super Bowl that certain? QB Rex Grossman is coming off an up-and-down year, but the jury is still out on how improved he'll be after having time to fix his game and become more comfortable with this offense. The running game and passing targets are more than solid to allow this team to move the ball up and down the field effectively. On the other side of the ball, it doesn't get much better than Chicago. They are impenetrable, love to inflict unconsciousness, and are gifted in turnovers. Grossman's play and RB Cedric Benson's ability to handlel the pounding he'll get are key if Chicago plans on booking a flight to Arizona.
  
  
• Detroit Lions - There is a very good chance that I will need some counselling by forecasting a Matt Millen team to finish second, but hear me out. There are some serious questions on defense that may, in fact, be their demise as it has every year. But, there appears to be a swelling excitement and pride that the Lions players are feeling and that has been nonexistent for a very long time. QB Jon Kitna has a huge arm and will be surrounded by a poisonous trio of receivers including rookie Calvin Johnson and a deep running attack. This squad will have to score a ton of points under OC Mike Martz, but it should be enough to give Millen and the Detroit fans something to finally cheer about.
  
  
• Green Bay Packers - No one knows for sure if this is Brett Favre's last season, but you can bet that he is filled with urgency and will not tolerate mistakes or sloppy attitudes from a much younger offense in 2007. The defense is gelling and will have to stay healthy and stop the run to keep Green Bay in games. The questions on offense are rooted in an unproven running game and receiving attack besides Donald Driver, but I expect that Favre will find a way to squeeze out enough points to begin bringing The Pack back to respectability.
  
  
• Minnesota Vikings - Patience is being preached by the Minnesota hierarchy as they look to build for the future with the draft and low-end free agents. They slugged a grand slam by drafting RB Adrian Peterson who will team up with Chester Taylor and provide an exciting running game behind a very good line. The problem is that opposing defenses will zero in on the running attack because there will be no passing game to open up. QB Tarvaris Jackson is still green and a mystery while the depth behind him and his receiving targets reek. The Vikings defense will have the pressure on them to give Jackson as many short fields as possible. It's going to be a long year.
  

NFC SOUTH

• New Orleans Saints - During the aftermath of Katrina two years ago, no one on this planet would have guessed or bet money that the Saints were this good and considered a Super Bowl contender. Their offense was ranked #1 last year led by QB Drew Brees and there's no reason to believe that it won't be more explosive this year. On defense, they were ranked #11 but played better than that although they need to improve in causing turnovers. Another vital piece to this team is their humility and discipline. Their focus is directed by Sean Payton who is proving that he will be the one to bring a championship to a city that deserves one.
  
  
• Carolina Panthers - The only threat to unseat the Saints from their divisional peak are the Panthers. They have a talented football team on both sides of the ball and grabbing David Carr to back up Jake Delhomme was a smart move. J.D. did not make smart decisions last year and, at times, played downright awful. They also must find consistency in their running game. If DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster stay healthy, then this offense along with WR stud Steve Smith will be able to rack up enough points to win. Which brings us to defense. This unit possesses the best front four in the NFL, but the rest of the unit is aveage at best. If they can keep opposing quarterbacks off balance and disrupt the flow, then this squad will do just fine in keeping the Panthers in games and have their eyes on the playoffs.
  
  
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - When I think of the Bucs these days, the first word to come to mind is - old. Coach Jon Gruden appears to relish in relying on grizzled veterans to carry a team which is why he brought in Jeff Garcia who is coming off a Cinderella season in Philly. But, can he repeat that in Jon Gruden's offensive scheme which has produced a #22, 23, and 29th-ranked unit the past three years? The defense is still solid but is showing its age. Gruden still lets older stars of yesterday start and fight injuries instead of turning over the load to younger talent and letting them develop. This concept of looking to the now instead of the future just might cost Gruden his job.

• Atlanta Falcons - It's been awhile since this team finished last in their division, but all signs point to a dog house finish (I couldn't resist.) QB Michael Vick is not coming back so the weight of the team falls on Joey Harrington who found pink slips in Detroit and Miami for certain reasons. Their running attack along with TE sensation Alge Crumpler will have to produce and put up ridiculous numbers to give Atlanta any chance of recovering. This team has chemistry issues and has struggled for years to play as a team since Vick was virtually a one-man show. Now that he's gone, maybe it will help, but it's going to take rookie head coach Bobby Petrino awhile to give this team a new identity.

NFC WEST

• San Francisco 49ers - Coach Mike Nolan inherited this Niners team two years ago after they posted a 2-14 record in 2004. In 2005, they doubled their wins to four, and last year they finished at 7-9. The timing, then, seemed right this past off season to pull out some stops. They signed a shutdown corner in Nate Clements and traded for WR Darrell Jackson from Seattle to give QB Alex Smith a big-play target. They also signed some very gifted players from defense schools New England, Baltimore, and Philly. And, I haven't even mentioned RB Frank Gore who rushed for the third highest total with 1,695. Gore should continue to dominate and be a major threat on offense for this Niners team that appears destined to be a serious contender that this city hasn't seen since the days of the late Bill Walsh.
  
  
• Seattle Seahawks - Injuries and sub-par performances were the guillotine that ended the Seahawks season last year, and that has to change. QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander missed significant time and their absence was felt as they slid to a 9-7 record but still managed to win the division. The offensive unit must find the magic that helped propel them to a Super Bowl berth two years ago, but that also falls on the defense. This squad is small but fast and failed to generate much of a pass rush while having trouble getting burned by big plays. Through some free agent signings and a renewed vision and attitude, Seattle could make some noise again this year.
  
  
• St. Louis Rams - If Seattle doesn't regain its luster, then there's a team located under the Gateway to the West that is poised to turn heads. On offense, QB Marc Bulger is fresh off of a huge contract extension and is surrounded by one of the most potent group of weapons in the league. RB Steven Jackson is going to be a destructive force to opposing defenses and all that will do is open up the passing game which is historically quite lethal itself. The real question this year for the Rams is on defense. They have some fantastic young athletes on the line and the linebackers and secondary are gaining a reputation to make big plays. St. Louis might sneak into the #2 spot, but will definitely be looking to go deep into the playoffs in 2008.
  
  
• Arizona Cardinals - From top to bottom, this is definitely the most talented division in the NFC. Any type of combination of injuries, lackluster play, and just bad timing can create a path to the top of this division. In reality, this Cards team needs time to mature and gain chemsitry and, in time, will be contenders. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt comes over from Pittsburgh where he was exceptional in developing Roethlisberger. He now has Matt Leinart to mentor and brought with him Russ Grimm to coach the O-line and keep Leinart vertical. RB Edgerrin James and an extremely potent receiving duo of Boldin and Fitzgerald are essential building blocks to the success of this franchise. The defense needs some serious work before you can start talking playoffs coming to the desert.

AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS

NEW ENGLAND, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN DIEGO, DENVER, CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH

NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS

DALLAS, CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE, ST. LOUIS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

SAN DIEGO OVER BALTIMORE

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

NEW ORLEANS OVER ST. LOUIS

SUPER BOWL XLII

NEW ORLEANS OVER SAN DIEGO