Friday, October 31, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 9 Picks

Mark Twain once said, "Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get."

The 2008 NFL season is at the midway point, and it has been anything but calculable. It has lived up to the reputation of this league by swatting at off-season expectations like pesky flies at a Sunday picnic.

There are teams like Indianapolis, Seattle, and San Diego who are used to surveying the scene from a much higher mountain top than the mesa where they currently reside. What about those squads who entered the season with very low expectations? Buffalo, Washington, Atlanta, and Baltimore have posted winning records when many expected them to be smelling a little ripe right about now.

And, you can't ignore the very impressive displays of dominance and efficiency by Tennessee, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and even New England in the wake of Tom Brady being MIA.

Here are some notes of recognition that I think are worth pointing out at the half-way mark:

1. MVP - Clinton Portis. He has 944 yards averaging 5 yards per carry plus 7 TD's to help lead Washington to a very impressive 6-2 record. Honorable mention: Kurt Warner. Drew Brees is having a phenomenal year, but Warner's numbers are also excellent as Arizona is in first place in the soft NFC West.

2. Rookie of the Year - Chris Johnson. He leads Tennessee with 626 yards rushing while averaging 5.1 yards per carry plus 4 TD's and has given coach Jeff Fisher an excellent tandem along with LenDale White to strike fear in opposing defenses. Honorable mention: Matt Ryan. Atlanta...yes, Atlanta...is 4-3 and a legitimate playoff dark horse team.

3. Coach of the Year - Jeff Fisher. To lead a team to a 7-0 record with a fossil QB, sub-par WR's, and a youthful running attack takes a special head coach, and you couldn't ask for a better one in Fisher. Of course, an ironclad defense helps too. Honorable mention: Jim Zorn. This man had never been a head coach or even called plays. This hire is now looking like a genius move by Daniel Snyder.

4. If the Super Bowl were played today... - NY Giants vs. Tennessee Titans. Two punishing and explosive defenses. Two lethal running attacks. Two emotional coaches. One earth-shaking battle.

Here is how the second half of the season is kicking off...trust me, you'll want to cancel your Sunday plans:


  • NY Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2): CBS, 1pm EST -This is a critical AFC East battle. The Bills are undefeated at home and have displayed a well-balanced team this season. Brett Favre must protect the ball and get good field position from the Jets defense that ranks third in sacks and fourth in stopping the run.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-8): CBS, 1pm EST - Brush up on the candidates' platforms.
  • Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (3-4): CBS, 1pm EST - Both offenses are scraping the bottom of the barrel, but QB Joe Flacco and Co. have stomped their last two foes, Miami and Oakland. The Ravens defense is making waves wherever it goes this season.
  • Houston Texans (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (3-4): CBS, 1pm EST - There hasn't been a problem in Houston as the Texans offense has been hot the last few games giving the Texans three straight wins. Minnesota's defense and Adrian Peterson will be enough to bring them back to earth.
  • Detroit Lions (0-7) at Chicago Bears (4-3): FOX, 1pm EST - Stop and think of any possible way to lose an NFL game, and Detroit has probably done it. Why stop now?
  • Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-0): FOX, 1pm EST - I love this match-up. Both teams have excellent secondaries so look for the Pack and the Titans to get their running game going. That's good news for Tennessee as the Pack is 25th in stopping the run. Green Bay is rested and just might put up a good fight, but that Tennessee defense and running attack should prevail once again.
  • Arizona Cardinals (4-3) at St. Louis Rams (2-5): FOX, 1pm EST - Motivation has a way of trumping all the stats and rankings. Kurt Warner always seems to have an extra potion of hunger when he comes back to St. Louis.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-6): FOX, 1pm EST - Last season after losing 6 straight games, Coach Herm Edwards said, “People aren’t used to this in Kansas City. Get over it. It happens. It’s called life. You can’t think you’re too big that it’s not going to happen to you. It happens to everybody." If you follow that chain of logic, so does unemployment.
  • Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Denver Broncos (4-3): CBS, 4:05pm EST - It's been very difficult for Denver to stop the pass this season, but it's been even more of a challenge to stop the run. A ruptured defense can be like walking around with a cement block tied to your leg. You can move forward but no one can tell. Miami's offense is ranked higher than Jacksonville and New England -- Denver's last two losses.
  • Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-5): FOX, 4:15pm EST - It's not often that beating a 4-3 team at home is considered a huge upset, but this is what the Raiders are facing. They are very hobbled at RB, QB JaMarcus Russell continues to disappoint, and the defense is shameful. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is blossoming well, WR Roddy White is white hot, and Michael Turner is lethal at RB.
  • Dallas Cowboys (5-3) at NY Giants (6-1): FOX, 4:15pm EST - Last season's divisional playoff loss at home was crushing for Dallas and is seared into their memories. But, they are simply too banged up and off-balance to seek revenge this time vs. a Giants team that appears to be impenetrable. This contest may need an "R" rating for gore and disturbing images.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5): FOX, 4:15pm EST - This season isn't exactly the warm farewell tour that coach Mike Holmgren pictured this past off-season. Philadelphia poses a huge problem for a dormant Seahawks team which is 31st in offense and 27th in defense.
  • New England Patriots (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4): NBC, 8:15pm EST, Sunday Night - QB Matt Cassel is putting up Brady-like numbers in his first seven games as an NFL starting QB. But, their defense hasn't been as effective as years past, and that just might come into play on the road against a Colts team that needs to rebound offensively. Indy's defense isn't doing well either, but they are 2nd in pass defense and will probably give Cassel fits especially with S Bob Sanders back in the fold.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Washington Redskins (6-2): ESPN, 8:30pm EST, MNF - Pittsburgh has beaten Houston, Cleveland, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Cincy while losing to the Giants and Philly. They have a great defense and solid running game, but this will be a true measure of how good they are so far this season. Washington has beaten New Orleans, Arizona, Dallas, Philly, and Cleveland. Their losses have come against the Giants and Rams. FedEx Field will be registering on the Richter scale.


STANDINGS

Chris Mortensen: 9-5, 78-38

Mark Schlereth: 9-5, 70-46

Ron Jaworski: 7-6, 68-40

Mike Golic: 8-6, 68-47

Eddie Chinn: 9-5, 68-48

Friday, October 24, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 8 picks

As we approach the half way point of the 2008 NFL season, I'm becoming aware of an awkward and somewhat humorous element that has crept into the legion of NFL fans: Hormonal emotions.

Frustration and disappointment over a team's plight are not alien manifestations as football fans on each end of the fanatic spectrum have expressed themselves in pure unadulterated honesty before.

But, this recent trend of hysterical and temperamental sentiments is overreaction to the core, and it can define the intelligence level of the fan base.

What makes this outburst so bizarre is also the timing. Why are some fans writing off the season in Week 7?

This can't be any more evident than in Dallas. The media and fans raised the expectations for the Cowboys to Everest heights. The Cowboys themselves didn't. There was talk of 16-0, 14-2, winning the Super Bowl, etc. Dallas now sets at 4-3 after hitting a rough stretch of games where they've lost 3 of 4 due to injuries to some key players, a lack of emotion, and a befuddled defense. All of these factors can also affect how you develop and execute game plans. The next thing you hear is an outpouring of fans demanding that Wade Phillips be fired and a shallow prediction that Dallas has just missed the playoffs, they should just start over and rebuild, etc.

Are you kidding me? Of course, these are the same fans that raise the roof at Texas Stadium and do The Wave when Dallas is five yards from the end zone WITH THE BALL thus jeopardizing the offense from hearing the signals.

I can understand these helpless feelings coming from fans in Detroit, Oakland, and Cincinnati whose teams are in disarray from top to bottom. Drastic actions in those type of cities can sometimes be justified. The Lions cut out their cancerous GM, but there's still a lot of work to do. Oakland changed coaches but it doesn't matter who is patrolling the sidelines if Al Davis is owner. Cincy might need to make a change at head coach just like St. Louis did as the Rams are not the same pathetic team under Jim Haslett. San Francisco followed the same model and installed Mike Singletary as head coach, and my guess is you're going to see positive vibes come from that city too.

Sometimes, it is what it is, but it's not the end of the world. Football fans aren't better or worse people than they were before the season began.

These things have a way of working out for a lot of teams, and history is full of teams who have started very slow and rusty only to roar back and not only make the playoffs but to actually come away world champions (Yes, Giant fans, I'm referring to the Big Blue.)

The season is still early for many teams, including Dallas. So many things can still happen to jump-start a sluggish team, but at the same rate, things can get worse. That's why the NFL is so great. Events and circumstances on and off the field can strike at a moment's notice out of nowhere and alter your expectations...good or bad.

There is plenty of time for things to turn around so embrace and enjoy the remainder of the season. Just take a deep breath and leave those unwarranted emotions at the door...until the playoffs arrive.

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-3): FOX, 1pm EST - There is a sound coming out of Valley Ranch, and it's not pleasant. Coaches and players alike are sick of losing and are on a mission. The home crowd and an opportunity to beat Jeff Garcia, who is a Cowboys nemesis, should be enough to kick start The Boys.
  • Washington Redskins (5-2) at Detroit Lions (0-6): FOX, 1pm EST - Crazier things have happened, but Detroit is skimming the barrel in every statistical category so an upset win over the Skins is about as remote as me buying the Desperate Housewives DVD set.
  • St. Louis Rams (2-4) at New England Patriots (4-2): FOX, 1pm EST - Both teams are second in their division which is staggering if you think about the last few seasons for each team. QB Matt Cassel appears to be getting comfortable with the Patriots offense which was evident in last week's thrashing of Denver at home.
  • Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3): FOX, 1pm EST - This will be the ultimate test for rookie QB Matt Ryan who has not faired too well vs. teams anchored by stout defenses although he did well vs. Chicago in his last outing two weeks ago. Both teams are coming off byes, and coach Andy Reid is 9-0 in games after bye weeks.
  • Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Carolina Panthers (5-2): FOX, 1pm EST - Trench warfare determines this one. Both squads have dynamic defensive lines which can alter any turf war. They also each have great passing attacks, but Carolina has a better running game.
  • Buffalo Bills (5-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-4): CBS, 1pm EST - Despite the record, Miami has been a joy to watch this year on offense, but this Bills defense is serious. Something tells me that south Florida won't be sunny when the final gun sounds.
  • San Diego Chargers (3-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-4) in London, England: CBS, 1pm EST - This will be QB Drew Brees' first time to face the Chargers since he left them in 2006. The void left by Reggie Bush due to injury will be cavernous. Both teams cannot afford to lose if they want to keep within striking distance in their respective divisions. Wembley Stadium historically has horrible field conditions.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) at NY Jets (3-3): CBS, 1pm EST - Look for RB Thomas Jones to have a huge game vs. this very fragile KC defense which allowed over 300 yards rushing last week vs. Tennessee. This should allow Brett Favre to settle down as he needs a turnover-free game in front of his home fans.
  • Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3): CBS, 1pm EST - Not going to waste much time here. Baltimore's defense is stifling and the Raiders offense is very ineffective. The Ravens need to focus on stopping the Raiders RB's, and they should do fine.
  • Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3): CBS, 4:05pm EST - I might have picked Cleveland here in an upset due to their success in J-town (two straight wins), but the enigmatic TE Kellen Winslow and Cleveland management are at odds and those types of dynamics have a tendency to rattle the chemistry.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (0-7) at Houston Texans (2-4): CBS, 4:05pm EST - On paper, this one is already in the books. Cincy has never lost to Houston in their three meetings, but this isn't that Bengals team. They are very unstable at RB, and QB Carson Palmer will miss his third straight game due to elbow problems and just might be out for the year. A loss will have the fire under Marvin Lewis glowing white.
  • NY Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1): FOX, 4:15pm EST - My taste buds stung and salivated when I saw this matchup. Can you think of two more balanced and even teams playing right now? Solid running attacks. Smothering defenses who love to rush the QB. Stellar quarterbacks. WR Plaxico Burress visits Heinz Field for the first time since he left in 2004. The Terrible Towels will be thick.
  • Seattle Seahawks (1-5) at San Francisco 49ers (2-5): FOX, 4:15pm EST - New Niners head coach Mike Singletary takes over for his mentor, Mike Nolan. Singletary is a man of fiery passion, fierce competitiveness, and impeccable character. These kinds of traits have a way of creeping into the mindsets of the players. This matchup against a lousy Seahawks team should be the perfect inauguration for the Singletary era.
  • Indianapolis Colts (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (6-0): ESPN, 8:30pm EST, MNF - Whoa. Indianapolis travels to Music City to take on their division rivals who are having the time of their life right now. A rejuvenated Kerry Collins, a heart-stopping running attack, and a defense that makes offense wet themselves has this Titans team on cloud nine. Peyton Manning is having an average year and has not done well on the road this year. Indy's run defense is also coming apart at the seams. Both teams have dynamic coaches. Don't go anywhere.

BYE: CHICAGO, DENVER, GREEN BAY, MINNESOTA

STANDINGS:

Chris Mortensen: 10-4, 69-33

Mark Schlereth: 8-6, 61-41

Ron Jaworski: 10-3, 61-34

Mike Golic: 7-7, 60-41

Eddie Chinn: 8-6, 59-43

Friday, October 17, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 7 Picks

Expect the unexpected.

Week 6 proved relentlessly that this should be the motto of the National Football League. This was one of those weekends that you needed Valium and nitroglycerin next to your nachos, wings, and beer. In case you're immersed in the presidential debates and forgot, let's recap:

- In eleven seconds, you can put on and tie a pair of tennis shoes, spread butter on a piece of toast, or check the oil in your car. You can also receive a kickoff, throw a a 26-yard strike, and kick a 48-yard field goal to win a game as Atlanta proved in their stunning win over Chicago 22-20.

- Houston continued its unbeaten streak vs. Miami by coming from behind and getting its first victory of the season when QB Matt Schaub scored on a 3-yard run with 3 seconds left giving Miami it's third loss.

- In a classic "Wanna get away..." moment, Lions QB Dan Orlovsky ran away from the Minnesota blitz along the back of the end zone from one end to the other...not realizing that he was out of bounds. The result was a safety, and Minnesota won 12-10 on a 26-yard field goal with nine seconds left.

- Apparently when Scott Linehan was fired from the Rams, the rest of the team disappeared with him. These were not the same Rams in Washington who actually played some offense, defense, and special teams in stunning the Redskins 19-17 on a last second 49-yard field goal.

- This was not a mirage in the Arizona desert. Dallas gave up an opening kickoff for a TD, struggled mightily on both sides of the ball all afternoon, used big plays to tie the game and send it into OT, and then got a punt blocked which led to the game-winning TD and their punter breaking his foot. Arizona won 30-24 and that wasn't the end of it as the week to follow was anything but boring.

- The roles were reversed in San Diego as the Chargers appeared to be superhuman and ran all over the Patriots who struggled on defense to stop Rivers, L.T. and Co. only to get blown out 30-10.

- On Monday Night, everyone expected the Giants to waltz into the Dawg Pound and pound the Browns into submission. The problem was that the team that NY expected to be the brunt of their blows wasn't the lowly squad that everyone had already written off. Cleveland acted like a wounded wild dog that had been cornered and ripped up the Giants 35-14.

What will Week 7 hold? Is another hapless team going to throw off their mask and reveal their true identity? The suspense, intrigue, and excitement is building so grab your remote and catheter. Oh, and don't forget the meds.


  • San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-1): CBS, 1pm EST - Injuries have peppered the Bills secondary as they prepare to face a Chargers offense that seemed to find itself last week vs. New England. San Diego has won 6 of the last 8 meetings and leads the overall series 20-9-2.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6): CBS, 1pm EST - Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has never lost in the state of Ohio (5-0 in Cincy and 5-0 in Cleveland.)
  • Tennessee Titans (5-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-4): CBS, 1pm EST - I do believe that in today's NFL, anything can happen on any given Sunday. But, I also believe that unless the Titans are captured by aliens, all signs point to a blood bath in Arrowhead.
  • Baltimore Ravens (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (2-3):CBS, 1pm EST - Two teams in the rebuilding stages square off in sunny Florida where the Ravens have never won. Their offensive line is soft, and rookie QB Joe Flacco is struggling. But, they have the top-rated defense in the league and will be facing a team that is full of surprises on offense this year.
  • Minnesota Vikings (3-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3): FOX, 1pm EST - This is probably my favorite matchup of the week. The NFC North has a special quality: Cold-weathered teams who love to churn the ball on the ground and chew up offenses with their stringent defenses. Both of these teams are running the ball well and anchored by intimidating defenses.
  • Dallas Cowboys (4-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4): FOX, 1pm EST - First, it was an embarrassing loss to Arizona. Then, in the week that followed, Dallas found out it would be without the services of Tony Romo, Felix Jones, and Mat McBriar due to injuries of varying degrees. Then, CB Pacman Jones got suspended...again. Dallas also traded for ex-Lions WR Roy Williams to line up opposite T.O. Will they survive this rocky week? I think St. Louis is a good start...especially if Romo decides to play after a phone call from Brett Favre.
  • San Francisco 49ers (2-4) at NY Giants (4-1): FOX, 1pm EST - Philadelphia got back on track last week by unleashing its fury vs. a suspect Niners defense. The Giants got humiliated on the national stage by Cleveland. Do the math.
  • New Orleans Saints (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (4-2): FOX, 1pm EST - There isn't a hotter QB in the league right now than Drew Brees. He will have his work cut out for him facing the NFL's 2nd-ranked pass defense on the road. Both teams have balanced rushing attacks that will be colliding with effective run defenses. Panthers WR Steve Smith has 7 TD's in his last six meetings vs. the Saints.
  • Detroit Lions (0-5) at Houston Texans (1-4): FOX, 4:05pm EST - A franchise full of pride and promise vs. a squad full of plight and pestilence.
  • NY Jets (3-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-4): CBS, 4:15pm EST - If you take away stats and records, Oakland may be the worst football team in the league from the top down. The Raiders welcome the Jets led by Brett Favre who last faced the Raiders on December 22, 2003 when he shredded them for 399 yards and 4 TD's following his father's death.
  • Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-3): CBS, 4:15pm EST - It was nice to see Peyton Manning back to form last week as he lit it up vs. Baltimore at home. Things will be a little different for Manning and Co. as they visit the Pack in Lambeau. The Colts offensive line is tattered right now, and that is great news for the league's 7th-ranked passing defense. Indy has won 13 straight in October.
  • Cleveland Browns (2-3) at Washington Redskins (4-2): CBS, 4:15pm EST - Things should get back to normal for both clubs as Washington remembers very clearly being embarrassed in front of their home fans last week in their loss to the Rams. Cleveland came out of nowhere at home and surprised the Giants. This time they are on the road, and the Skins aren't happy.
  • Seattle Seahawks (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2): NBC, 8:15pm EST, Sunday Night - This isn't a good situation for Seattle. QB Matt Hasselbeck will miss his second straight game with back and knee injuries. Due to his absence and no continuity at receiver, the pressure has been on the running game and their defense who are getting worn out fast. Tampa is solid and should thrive at home.
  • Denver Broncos (4-2) at New England Patriots (3-2): ESPN, 8:30pm EST, MNF - Both of these defenses have seen better days and had more productive seasons. They each are facing offenses that are very talented, but the edge here goes to Denver who ranks 4th in total offense. They also have a great line who are facing a Pats unit that has not been able to put pressure on the QB this season.


BYE: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona, Jacksonville

STANDINGS

Chris Mortensen: 9-5, 59-29

Mark Schlereth: 6-8, 53-35

Mike Golic: 7-7, 53-34

Eddie Chinn: 8-6, 51-37

Ron Jaworski: 9-4, 51-31

Friday, October 10, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 6 Picks

Football is a barbaric, tenacious, and vile game. It consists of brawny gridiron soldiers executing complex, strategic game plans using methods including blinding speed, laser dexterity, and obliterating hits. On any given play, there's splintering bones, spurting blood, brain trauma, ripped muscles, and jarred teeth that end up wedged in cleats.

But every Sunday, media and football fans seem infatuated with dissecting the outcome of games based on the beauty of the wins. They are consumed by style points. They talk about how teams won, but "It was an ugly win" or "That was not a pretty victory" or "They shouldn't have won that game...they looked out of sync," and then there's "If I was the coach, I wouldn't be pleased with how they won that one."

Are you kidding me?

Anyone who thinks that NFL teams begins the regular season like an ironed, crisp dress shirt just returned from the cleaners, isn't living in reality. Anyone who thinks that NFL teams should be at their ultimate best in every area of the game by Week 5 is seeing a mirage.

The pre-season is four games that allow coaches to determine their roster and work on fundamentals. It's basically glorified training camp on TV that prepares the teams for the regular season which is the training ground for the playoffs.

The regular season is where the concentration and attitude of all 1,696 players becomes monumental as all 32 teams try to find their stride and momentum at just the right time while jockeying for position in their divisions. But, there will still be crushing injuries, mishaps, poorly executed plays, mental breakdowns, and bad timing.

Most teams don't reach their true potential and the pinnacle of their momentum until the last month of the season.

So, in the meantime, look at these early weeks of warfare as teams still discovering who they are and what they're made of. It's a process and journey which doesn't deserve false expectations of these players and teams.

What will happen in this leg of the journey in Week 6? Which teams will finally slip in place and get our attention? Are there any teams that have unknowingly already reached their pinnacle for this season and will begin to fade to black?

Remember. This games will continue to be gut-wrenching, explosive, mind-blowing, and extremely entertaining. But, it's only Week 6.

  • Chicago Bears (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-2): FOX, 1pm EST - Two of the most eye-opening RB's playing right now are Chicago's rookie Matt Forte and Atlanta's Michael Turner. Both of these defenses will have their hands full containing them, but Chicago is simply a more dominant squad right while also sporting a more talented offense.
  • Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3): FOX, 1pm EST - It's been eleven years since Detroit last won in Minnesota. They might need to start Drew Stanton, their second-round draft pick in 2007, at QB due to injuries to Jon Kitna and the great Dan Orlovsky. Their 30th-ranked rush defense gets to face the lethal Adrian Peterson. Hide the kids.
  • Carolina Panthers (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2): FOX, 1pm EST - This is great smash-mouth battle between two divisional foes who each sport very effective running tandems. Tampa was clicking on all cylinders with Brian Griese at QB, but he has a right elbow injury. If he can't go, then the reins will go to Jeff Garcia who will be facing a rejuvenated DE Julius Peppers and Carolina defense.
  • St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Washington Redskins (4-1): FOX, 1pm EST- Former Saints head coach Jim Haslett takes over the helm of the woeful Rams, and he just might be what this team needs to begin a turn around. But, don't plan on it meaning a W in the nation's capitol. Washington is 20-7-1 vs. the Rams in franchise history and has yet to have a turnover this season.
  • Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2): CBS, 1pm EST - What is wrong with Peyton Manning? His mobility appears to be back but his chemistry with his receivers is very unstable right now. This will have to improve vs. the league's #1 ranked secondary and pass rush. Indy has yet to win a game in their new home, Lucas Oil Field, but coach Tony Dungy is 4-0 vs. Baltimore.
  • Oakland Raiders (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-3): CBS, 1pm EST - The Lane Kiffin death watch is now over after the 120-year old Al Davis fired him and tore him down as a man. New head coach Tom Cable looks like John Goodman and will have his hands full facing a Saints team that is not too happy about their loss to Minnesota last Monday night despite a career day for Reggie Bush. It will be interesting to see how long Cable lasts under the crypt keeper owner.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2): CBS, 1pm EST - This could be a massacre which the Jets are used to after Brett Favre's 6-TD performance two weeks ago vs. Arizona. Favre should pick up where he left off vs. a Cincy team that is very unstable right now especially with Carson Palmer out and the young Ryan Fitzpatrick in. Marvin Lewis appears to be on the hot seat, and a loss to the Jets could be his ticket to the unemployment line.
  • Miami Dolphins (2-2) at Houston Texans (0-4): CBS, 1pm EST - These are actually two pretty evenly-matched teams on both sides of the ball except for rushing defense where Houston is 26th. Facing Miami's 10th-ranked rushing attack will be a challenge for these winless Texans. The Dolphins are turning heads with their performance the last two weeks and have never beaten Houston. They're due.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Denver Broncos (4-1): CBS, 4:05pm EST - Each team is packed with enough firepower to light up the sky offensively, but their defenses are struggling big time. Both squads will probably come out quick and fast to see whose defense wears down the fastest. Jacksonville has won the last three meetings vs. Denver.
  • Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-2): FOX, 4:15pm EST - After watching NFL football for over 30 years, I've come to realize that if you have a very porous and suspect secondary, you don't want to face someone like Kurt Warner and his lethal arsenal. Due to injuries, poor play, and Pacman's possible suspension, the elements are there for a good ole fashioned desert sunburn.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3): FOX, 4:15pm EST - The game plan is real simple for Philadelphia. If they want to avoid compiling a three game losing streak for the season and on the road, their defense must rise up and play their hearts out. QB J.T. O'Sullivan must feel the heat all day long while RB Frank Gore is grounded. If neither happen, it's going to be one long flight home across the country.
  • Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (1-3): FOX, 4:15pm EST - When was the last time you saw these two teams play each other and they both had losing records? Both have fallen on hard times the last three weeks, and each desperately needs a win in order to not lose ground in their divisions. Both defenses know how to give up points so this just might be a high-scoring affair.
  • New England Patriots (3-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3): NBC, 8:15pm EST, Sunday Night - Speaking of losing ground in divisions. These two teams are always a joy to watch regardless of their records, but they both are struggling this season to maintain momentum. Regardless, when you have weapons like Randy Moss and LaDainian Tomlinson on the field, you have a recipe for one entertaining battle.
  • NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland Browns (1-3): ESPN, 8:30pm EST, MNF - Emergency crews are standing by.


STANDINGS

Chris Mortensen: 9-5, 50-24

Mark Schlereth: 9-5, 47-27

Mike Golic: 8-6, 46-27

Eddie Chinn: 6-8, 43-31

Ron Jaworski: 7-6, 42-27

Friday, October 3, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 5 Picks

James Earl Jones. J.K. Simmons. Steven Hill. Bill Daily. Dennis Farina. Steve Buscemi. Chris Cooper.

Character actors are why I watch certain movies and TV shows. They are usually hard-wired with an impeccable sense of humor, a unique and recognizable voice, and a look that pierces the screen with laser sharp precision.

There's another trait about this tier of high-quality character actors: They don't disappoint.

The National Football League doesn't disappoint.

It's a breathing, pulsating entity that is comprised of many different elements while appealing to just about any fan out there. Yes, there are athletes being shot, busted for drugs, and who have a wide variety of character issues. Their persona flirts on the fence line between football and Hollywood to the point of being type-cast as a cancer to the team. But, there are others who exemplify true character, are defined by a plumb line in their life, and are as solid as oak.

Together, they participate in turf battles every Sunday of the season; wars that produces excitement and thrills on a continuous basis. Every single Sunday, you know that you can expect one thing to occur without fail: Incalculable events that leave you breathless.

The nature of this league also bleeds into the work week and peppers us with unexpected events in the form of injuries, firings, cuts, and vocal outbursts that turn into locker room fodder; all of which adds spice to the upcoming games.

This past Sunday and week reflected this phenomenon delightfully.

Washington stunned the Cowboys in Texas Stadium. Denver fell to the lowly Chiefs. Chicago shocked Philly. San Diego overcame a 15-0 deficit to obliterate Oakland leading to Lane Kiffin's firing by crusty, senile Al Davis. In the same fashion, St. Louis built a lead on Buffalo only to be crushed at home and kicking coach Scott Linehan to the curb.

Terrell Owens became vocal about wanting the ball more which is a good thing and nothing new despite the media's infatuation with covering the story. Bengals WR Chad Johnson said in an interview that he loves Dallas and that Jerry Jones should give him a call. He also said that if he scores a TD against Dallas that he's going to kiss the star on the field. I'm sure that will sit well with the Bengals and their fans.

In looking at Week 5, there's still no sign of discontentment.

  • Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-1): CBS, 1pm EST - According to Chiefs head coach Herm Edwards, his players had begun to doubt themselves. "They were questioning their talent. You can't question that. The way you overcome that, you've got to just keep playing. Just play with energy. Just keep going fast. Just keep playing hard." Well, that seemed to help as they overcame the 3-0 Broncos and now must face a Carolina team whose offense exploded last week with over 400 yards and is 2-0 at home.
  • San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-2): CBS, 1pm EST - Yes, I know Tom Brady is out for the year. But, that annihilation of New England at home by Miami two weeks ago said more about Miami than the Brady-less Bunch. The Dolphins torched the Patriots behind RB Ronnie Brown's 5-TD performance. San Diego poses a serious threat to bring Miami down to earth behind a hot L.T.
  • Tennessee Titans (4-0) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1): CBS, 1pm EST - This contest is dripping with signs of it being an all-out war. If you like good old-fashioned smash mouth football, then you will not want to miss this game. Both defenses are asphyxiating, and each offense has a rushing attack that will flip defenses inside-out. Coach Jeff Fisher is doing an unfathomable job this season.
  • Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-3): CBS, 1pm EST - There's no beating around the bush here. Indy has not been playing well on both sides of the ball especially Peyton Manning. But, this team has resolve, is coming off a bye, and is 5-1 at Reliant Stadium which is finally ready after being damaged by Ike. The problem is that Houston just might not be ready for Indy.
  • Chicago Bears (2-2) at Detroit Lions (0-3): FOX, 1pm EST - Removing Millen last week was a move that was about 5 years too late, but now that it's done, the Lions are finally able to breathe a little better as the black cloud begins to leave. Just not this week.
  • Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2): FOX, 1pm EST - If Aaron Rodgers is going to fill Brett Favre's shoes successfully and ease the sting felt by the Packers faithful of losing a legend, he needs to start this Sunday against Atlanta. Rodgers sprained his throwing shoulder last week and has every intention of starting in true Favre-like fashion. He better succeed considering his back-up has never played in an NFL game. Atlanta rookie QB Matt Ryan has yet to win a road game, and I don't see Lambeau being the first.
  • Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0): FOX, 1pm EST - I'm convinced that if you were to whisper in the ear of Giants WR Plaxico Burress, you would hear an echo. He's talented yet hollow-headed as he continues to find ways to be suspended by the Giants for conduct detrimental to the team. His absence allows Seattle to put an extra man on the run while the 'Hawks are #2 in rushing offense and are getting back two WR's from injuries to finally bolster their arsenal.
  • Washington Redskins (3-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2): FOX, 1pm EST - It's not too often that a game in Week 5 is considered a "must win", but Philly should be targeting this all-out brawl with the Redskins as just that. Two losses to two divisional opponents before Week 5 doesn't sit well. Philly's defense leads the league in sacks and must put intense pressure on Jason Campbell who has yet to throw an interception this season. Washington's defense is hurting.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Denver Broncos (3-1): FOX, 4:05pm EST - Both teams had emotional games last week. Denver's spirit and momentum took a hit in KC falling to the Chiefs while the Bucs beat the Packers on the leg of K Matt Bryant who buried his infant son a few days prior. QB Brian Griese was drafted by Denver so he'll face his second former team this year. Tampa needs to protect the football and avoid turnovers facing the league's #1 offense, and they are 17-0 since 2002 when they don't turn the ball over.
  • Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2): CBS, 4:15pm EST - Should Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt be concerned? The last two victories by Buffalo were against Oakland and St. Louis who ended up firing their their head coaches this past week. These two teams are pretty even in the rankings on both sides of the ball. It will come down to who wins the turnover battle and can control the clock.
  • New England Patriots (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2): CBS, 4:15pm EST - When the 2008 NFL schedule came out, Patriot fans probably doubled over and rolled on the floor laughing while Niners fans rolled their eyes and went ahead and wrote an "L" beside this date. Oh, how a torn ACL can change things. Now, the Patriots stroll into San Fran with a 28th-ranked offense and 21st-ranked defense to face a 49ers team that is clicking on offense. The ingredients are there for a huge upset.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1): CBS, 4:15pm EST - Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens on the same field. Stop and let it sink in. Dallas is not happy after that home loss to the Skins, and Cincy has nothing going for them except #85 who is due for a break out game vs. a leaking Cowboys secondary. This Bengals team almost beat the Giants at home so Dallas cannot let their guard down. They must pressure Carson Palmer and create turnovers which they have struggled to do this season. This will be fun to watch...trust me.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2): NBC, 8:15pm EST, Sunday Night - There's no sense in beating around the bush here. Jacksonville has Pittsburgh's number having dominated them the last four meetings winning the last three. And, they are catching them at a really good time with Ben Roethlisberger suffering through a really bad shoulder and operating behind a battered line. Pittsburgh's running game has been defused due to many injuries so Jacksonville can concentrate on the passing game.
  • Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-2): ESPN, 8:30pm EST, MNF - Whenever RB Adrian Peterson comes to town, the game plan for opposing defensive coordinators is pretty simple: Stop A.P. It won't be much different this time as the Vikings come to New Orleans desperately needing a win. This Saints offense is 3rd in the league and will be even more dangerous now that Deuce McAllister is healthy and seeing more carries. Minnesota has won six of the last seven meetings.

BYE: Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, NY Jets


STANDINGS:

Chris Mortensen: 9-4, 41-19

Mark Schlereth: 6-7, 38-22

Mike Golic: 9-4, 38-21

Eddie Chinn: 7-6, 37-23

Ron Jaworski: 6-6, 35-21